2021 NBA First Round Preview and Breakdown
The starting of this round marks the start of the 2021 NBA Playoffs, and I am psyched! We get to see so many amazing matchups in just the first round alone, such as Miami v Milwaukee, and the Clippers v the Mavericks. This post will go through a preview of every first-round series (in both conferences) and break down/analyze each one, with my predictions. This article is the second of five articles, in which I break down each stage of the playoffs. The posting schedule throughout the playoffs will be as followed:
Play-In Preview (which can be found here)
1st Round Preview
Semifinals Preview
Conference Finals Preview
Finals Preview
This postseason includes all of the following matchups:
(East) #1 Philadelphia 76ers v #8 Washington Wizards
(East) #2 Brooklyn Nets v #7 Boston Celtics
(East) #3 Milwaukee Bucks v #6 Miami Heat
(East) #4 New York Knicks v #5 Atlanta Hawks
(West) #1 Utah Jazz v #8 Memphis Grizzlies
(West) #2 Phoenix Suns v #7 Los Angeles Lakers
(West) #4 Los Angeles Clippers v #5 Dallas Mavericks
(West) #3 Denver Nuggets v #6 Portland Trail Blazers
So, without further ado, let's get into the previews!
Eastern Conference
(East) #1 PHI v #8 WAS
📸 courtesy of SBNation - Liberty Ballers
Regular Season Series: 76ers 3-0
Washington has played with a massive amount of heart and integrity to get into this postseason, but they probably couldn't have asked for a tougher first-round matchup. Philadelphia is perfectly suited to shut down Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal's offensive onslaught, with a stout defense led by DPOY candidate Ben Simmons at the point forward, young stud defender Matisse Thybulle at the wing, and dominant big man Joel Embiid. On top of that, Bradley Beal has been hampered by a hamstring injury. Watching him play. against Boston and Indiana, he clearly wasn't moving well. If he isn't 100% going into this series, it will be next to impossible for Washington to pull out a win (if it wasn't already). Philly can get it done on both sides of the ball, and they will be way too much for Washington's meager defense to handle.
Game 1 Prediction: 76ers Win 131-119
Game 2 Prediction: 76ers Win 126-109
Game 3 Prediction: 76ers Win 124-114
Game 4 Prediction: 76ers Win 119-106
Series MVP: Joel Embiid (26.7 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 2.6 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Bradley Beal (18.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.8 APG)
Joel Embiid would dominate in the paint against almost any team, but Washington will be especially prone to that. The Wizards have no one except for Daniel Gafford to slow down Embiid, so I predict Embiid to go on a tear. Bradley Beal will have his impact and production greatly reduced due to his hamstring issues, and even Russell Westbrook can't pack the stat sheet enough to save Washington's playoff hopes.
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(East) #2 BRK v #7 BOS
📸 courtesy of Action Network
Regular Season Series: Nets 3-0
My favorite team, the Boston Celtics, face a brutally tough matchup in the first round. Brooklyn has all the star power that any team could want. With their big 3 coming together for this playoff run, Brooklyn will be hard to stop. But, I don't think that this series will be as easy as many people think it will be. Since April, Jayson Tatum has played absolutely out of his mind, recording three 50+ point games, including a career-high of 60 points. Against Washington in the play-in, Tatum recorded 50 points and Kemba Walker scored 29 points on 6/14 from beyond the three-point arc. Boston won that game with ease because of the defensive gravity focused on Tatum. Walker was able to drill open threes because Tatum created so much space. If Tatum can use his unbelievably amazing three-level offensive game to create open shots and easy opportunities for his teammates, Boston might be able to take a game or two from Brooklyn.
Game 1 Prediction: Nets Win 131-118
Game 2 Prediction: Celtics Win 127-122
Game 3 Prediction: Celtics Win 125-122
Game 4 Prediction: Nets Win 138-127
Game 5 Prediction: Nets Win 129-120
Game 6 Prediction: Nets Win 134-126
Series MVP: Kevin Durant (29.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.5 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Tristan Thompson (6.7 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.3 APG)
I predict Brooklyn to win this series, but I do see Boston putting up a fight. Boston is going into this postseason after an injury and Covid-19 plagued season, with Jaylen Brown undergoing season-ending surgery recently to repair a torn ligament in his wrist. Without their second-best player, Boston will have a tougher time with Brooklyn, but with Kemba Walker playing every game, I have confidence in my Celtics to exceed the expectations in this series.
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(East) #3 MIL v #6 MIA
📸 courtesy of The New York Times
Regular Season Series: Bucks 2-1
This matchup is a repeat of last season's bubble playoffs, in which the Heat beat the Bucks in 5 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Miami was said to be the perfect team to beat Milwaukee entering the postseason, and Miami got the job done, advancing past the Bucks on their way to an NBA Finals appearance. Miami looks weaker than they were last season, and Milwaukee looks even stronger. Milwaukee has the defense to slow down Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, and Milwaukee has the variety of scoring options to spread Miami's defense thin. Will Milwaukee's new additions such as Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker put them on top, or will Miami topple Milwaukee early once more? Personally, I think that Holiday will be the difference-maker in this series, as Miami won't have a 3rd viable defensive stopper to throw at him, seeing as Butler and Adebayo will be tasked with guarding Khris Middleton and Antetokounmpo.
Game 1 Prediction: Bucks Win 127-118
Game 2 Prediction: Bucks Win 124-110
Game 3 Prediction: Bucks Win 120-112
Game 4 Prediction: Heat Win 117-115
Game 5 Prediction: Bucks Win 125-115
Series MVP: Khris Middleton (23.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.6 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Goran Dragić (13.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 5.3 APG)
Milwaukee is a completely new team. Jrue Holiday is a top defensive guard in the league, and I think that he will shut down Miami's x-factor in Goran Dragić like Milwaukee couldn't do last year. Either Holiday or Middleton will dominate in this series, because Milwaukee has too many offensive threats for Miami to deal with, leaving someone to run rampant. Antetokounmpo will have a solid series, but with Adebayo draped on him 24/7, it will be difficult for Giannis to assert his prominence as he usually does.
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(East) #4 NYK v #5 ATL
📸 courtesy of Reuters
Regular Season Series: Knicks 3-0
This is a surprising series to see, as no one really expected these two squads to do as well as they have this season. Julius Randle took an All-NBA level leap, and R.J. Barrett took his sophomore step up, both helping boost the Knicks to the #4 seed, as well as strong contributions from pieces such as Immanuel Quickley, Derrick Rose, Obi Toppin, and Mitchell Robinson. Kew York became a top overall defensive team in the NBA, and proved themselves to be better than everyone had made them out to be. And for the Hawks, they made some major free agency additions such as Danilo Gallinari and Kris Dunn to provide support for Trae Young. Clint Capela emerged as a massively underrated two-way Center, putting himself towards the top of DPOY ladders. Trae Young's name has been brought up in All NBA team discussions, which goes to show how good he's been this year. Young hasn't been as much of a negative on defense as last season (-3.6 DLEBRON in 2012-2020, -2.3 DLEBRON in 2020-2021). I think this series won't be as close as some think, but these two teams are pretty well suited to combat each other.
Game 1 Prediction: Knicks Win 116-109
Game 2 Prediction: Hawks Win 129-117
Game 3 Prediction: Knicks Win 122-115
Game 4 Prediction: Hawks Win 126-119
Game 5 Prediction: Knicks Win 120-109
Game 6 Prediction: Knicks Win 118-113
Series MVP: Julius Randle (26.1 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 7.4 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: John Collins (16.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.8 APG)
The Knicks have the complete defensive versatility to slow Atlanta's diverse offense down enough for Julius Randle to dominate with his complete three-level offensive game. Clint Capela can try to stop him in the paint but Randle has shown a unique combination of size and quickness this season that he'll continue to use in this series to carry New York past the Hawks. Atlanta. has a pretty bright future, but for now, they aren't there yet.
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Western Conference
(West) #1 UTA v #8 MEM
📸 courtesy of SBNation - Grizzly Bear Blues
Regular Season Series: Jazz 3-0
The Utah Jazz finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA, yet many people don't expect them to do as well as their record suggests they can. I think that Utah has both the perimeter and interior defense to stifle Memphis' top scorers. Ja Morant makes his living in the paint, with sweet ball fakes and smooth floaters and gravity-defying layups, but lead DPOY candidate Rudy Gobert will make Morant's life a living hell in the painted area. On top of that, I just don't think that Memphis is ready for a playoff berth yet with this squad. They're very young and don't have postseason experience. Now Utah has plenty of postseason experience. Utah's entire starting lineup has proven itself capable of high playoff production. Memphis has a promising future, but Utah will take this series easily.
Game 1 Prediction: Jazz Win 127-111
Game 2 Prediction: Jazz Win 113-101
Game 3 Prediction: Jazz Win 119-108
Game 4 Prediction: Jazz Win 124-114
Series MVP: Rudy Gobert (22.5 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 3.4 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Jaren Jackson Jr. (14.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.2 APG)
Rudy Gobert will have a monster series. Memphis has a solid paint presence (mostly due to Jonas Valanciunas), but Gobert will prove to be too much for Memphis' young squad. Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell will shred Memphis' perimeter defense, and the pick and roll game between Gobert and Conley/Mitchell will open up clear shots from deep, from the midrange, and in the paint. Jaren Jackson Jr. will have a tough series matched up with Gobert down low. If Jackson Jr. wants to contribute offensively, he'll most likely need to do so from beyond the three-point arc. Overall, Utah is more experienced and will move on with ease.
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(West) #2 PHX v #7 LAL
📸 courtesy of SBNation - Bright Side Of The Sun
Regular Season Series: Suns 2-1
Poor Suns. They finally built a team that meshes well together. They finally earned a top seed in the Western Conference. And then the Play-In Tournament lands them LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the LA Lakers as their first-round matchup. That's gotta hurt. Despite the difficult matchup, I am very high on this suns team. I like their perimeter defense, and they remind me of the 2020 Miami Heat with their constant and relentless off-ball movement and cutting on offense. That helps them generate a lot of easy looks from three-point range, or at the basket. I predict Chris Paul to be continuously and effortlessly efficient and reliable for Phoenix on both ends of the court during this series. Devin Booker will continue to show off his full-tool scoring ability, but I do expect his production to be reduced against LA's top defense.
Game 1 Prediction: Lakers Win 108-104
Game 2 Prediction: Suns Win 114-110
Game 3 Prediction: Suns Win 109-103
Game 4 Prediction: Lakers Win 117-110
Game 5 Prediction: Suns Win 111-107
Game 6 Prediction: Lakers Win 115-110
Game 7 Prediction: Suns Win 111-108
Series MVP: Chris Paul (20.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 11.1 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Dennis Schröder (14.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.6 APG)
LeBron James does everything in his power to carry the Lakers past the Suns, but I see the Suns as a dark-horse finals team. They have continuity in their offensive and defensive play, they have great coaching, they have great leadership, and they have an offensive system that will exploit gaps and holes in LA's defense for easy buckets. Chris Paul will lead the charge for Phoenix, not only creating for himself but opening everything up for his teammates as well. Mikal Bridges does a solid job slowing James down, and Deandre Ayton is able to limit Montrezl Harrell and Andre Drummond (and Anthony Davis to a lesser extent) in the paint. The Lakers are a great team, but the Suns have the tools to beat them.
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(West) #3 DEN v #6 POR
📸 courtesy of SBNation - Blazer's Edge
Regular Season Series: Nuggets 2-1
This is the first series in which I am torn. I really don't have a definitive pick for who will win this series. The absence of Jamal Murray (due to an ACL injury) makes this series very close. Leading MVP candidate Nikola Jokic will have to (to an extent) carry Denver through this postseason. Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter are most certainly not known for their defense, so Jokic should be able to assert his offensive skill on all three levels of the court. Michael Porter Jr. will have to step up and fill the shoes that Jamal Murray left by providing subsidiary scoring to help take the pressure off of Jokic. For Portland to win this series, Damian Lillard will have to unleash his best Dame Time moments yet, as Denver has lost a solid chunk of scoring that would be provided by Murray. One name on Portland's roster that I will be watching is Enes Kanter. Kanter is known for his smooth skills in the paint on offense, with quick pivots and spins on the low block, and powerful offensive rebounding. If Kanter can get Portland some second chances by extending possessions with offensive boards, Portland could close the gap on Denver's offensive firepower.
Game 1 Prediction: Nuggets Win 126-117
Game 2 Prediction: Nuggets Win 119-114
Game 3 Prediction: Nuggets Win 121-118
Game 4 Prediction: Trail Blazers Win 129-125
Game 5 Prediction: Trail Blazers Win 126-124
Game 6 Prediction: Nuggets Win 131-120
Series MVP: Nikola Jokic (31.9 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 9.8 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Derrick Jones Jr. (5.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.7 APG)
In the end, Nikola Jokic will be too much for Portland's defense to handle. Denver has one of the smoothest and well-oiled offenses in the league, and Jokic is the ringleader of this perfect machine. This series would've been easier for Denver if they had Jamal Murray, but Portland's lack of interior defense sinks their postseason hopes this time. Lillard will have a great series, as well as CJ McCollum, but it won't be enough to stop the number of good opportunities created by Jokic's offensive wizardry.
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(West) #4 LAC v #5 DAL
📸 courtesy of The New Yorker
Regular Season Series: Mavericks 2-1
The second of two rematches from last postseason's semifinals round, this time, we get to see multiple of the top players in the NBA battling it out with reinforced teammates behind them. Luka Dončić now has Josh Richardson, an active (but still uncertain) Kristaps Porzingis, and J.J. Redick are some names that Dončić didn't have to help him against LAC in last postseason's matchup. The Clippers also look better this season, adding Serge Ibaka and Rajon Rondo to their squad, solidifying to positional holes at Center and Point Guard. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are clicking, and LAC is a popular pick for champions. I, for one, can't wait to see how these roster changes on both teams affect this series, and I also can't wait to see if Dallas can get revenge on LA for last postseason's events.
Game 1 Prediction: Mavericks Win 122-118
Game 2 Prediction: Clippers Win 129-119
Game 3 Prediction: Clippers Win 134-121
Game 4 Prediction: Mavericks Win 126-120
Game 5 Prediction: Clippers Win 124-113
Game 6 Prediction: Mavericks Win 119-115
Game 7 Prediction: Clippers Win 122-114
Series MVP: Luka Dončić (23.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 11.3 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Kristaps Porzingis (16.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.4 APG)
I know my predictions for this might be a surprise, because the Clippers are viewed as a top title favorite, why would the #6 seed Mavericks take them to 7 games in the first round? I think that LA will have an acclimation series here, and after a nail-biter series, they will hit a stride that they will ride deep into this postseason. Luka will channel his inner magic, and carry this Mavs squad almost to a crazy upset, but a disappointing series from Porzingis causes Dallas to fall just short.
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And that concludes my 2021 NBA First Round Preview/Breakdown, I hope you enjoyed it! NBA Playoff Time is just about my favorite time of year, so I look forward to bringing you this series of playoff stage previews and breakdowns throughout the rest of this postseason! Thank you for reading, and stay tuned for the rest of these previews/breakdowns! I will be doing one for every round of the playoffs!